WindGURU: Help, Modele de prognoză a vremii

Modele pentru prognoză folosite de Windguru

Model GFS

GFS stands for the Global Forecast System. It is run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which is a unit of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), NWS (National Weather Service), USA. The GFS is run four times per day (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC) out to 384 hours. Since July 2010 it is run with resolution of 27 km out to 192 hours (previously 35 km) and then with lower resolution for up to hour 384. GFS datafiles that are currently available from NOAA have resolution of 0.5 degree (about 50 km) so this is the real resolution of products that you can see here or on other websites that use the same source. Windguru foloseste numai 180 de ore de prognoza, ce depaseste fiind greu de realizat. Se poate observa ca rezolutia modelelor nu este foarte buna dar acopera intreg globul!

Model NAM

North American Mesoscale (NAM) reprezinta un model regional mezoscara ce foloseste suprafete consolidate si parametrizari imbunatatite ale suprafetelor si proceselor de precipitatii. Este de asemenea utilizat de NCEP, cunoscut in trecut sub numele de Eta, fiind redenumit in NAM la inceputul anului 2005. Windguru foloseste date de prognoza de 84 de ore la intervale de 3 ore ce acopera America de Nord cu o rezolutie medie de 0.11 grade (aproximativ 12 km). Actualizat de patru ori pe zi. O rezolutie mai mare decat a modelului GFS ar trebui sa furnizeze prognoze pe termen scurt mai precise. Harta acoperirii:

NAM 12 km

Since October 2011 NOAA/NCEP added several high resolution subdomains to their NAM model. The first we use on windguru is the one that covers Hawaii in 3 km resolution. The subdomains run inside the main 12 km domain from 0 to 60 h, but at the moment we only show the first 36 hour forecast, the reason for this is that for 0-36h the output files are available in 1 hour steps, but 36-60h only in 3 hour steps, and it is not so easy to combine that in the current windguru forecast tables (at least now, it will probably change in future). Updates are 4 times per day.

NAM 3 km

Model WRF

Modelul Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) reprezinta un sistem numeric mezoscara de prognoza meteorologica de generatie urmatoare proiectat pentru a satisface nevoile de prognoze operationale cat si de cercetari atmosferice. Reprezinta un succesor evolutiv al modelului MM5. Efortul dezvoltarii WRF a fost reprezentat de un parteneriat de colaborare intre National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) si Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Naval Research Laboratory, Universitatea din Oklahoma si Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Mai multe informatii pe site-ul modelului WRF.

Oferim modele WRF pentru majoritatea Europei si Mediteranei. Insulele Canare, Madeira si o parte din coasta Atlantica a Marocului sunt de asemenea acoperite cu modele WRF cu o rezolutie de 9 km. Un alt domeniu mai mic WRF cu rezolutie de 9 km acopera Nordul Marii Rosii cu locatii cunoscute din Egipt, Israel, Lebanon si sudul Ciprului. Argentina, Chile and Uruguay are covered by WRF 12 km. Conditiile si limitile initiale provin din modelul GFS. Daca totul functioneaza perfect WTF se actualizeaza de 4 ori pe zi si ofera o prognoza pentru urmatoarele 78 de ore la un interval de o ora. Prognozele includ viteza si directia vantului, rafale de vant, temperatura, nebulozitatea si precipitatiile.

The highest resolution model we are running now is 3 km. Such a high resolution requires massive computing so the covered area can't be very large. WRF with 3 km covers Czech republic, forecasts are for next 48 hours and update 4 times per day. Another small 3 km domain covers one of the most famous areas for wind & kitesurfing in Europe - Tarifa / Strait of Gibraltar.

Arie acoperita WRF cu o rezolutie de 27 km:	Arie acoperita WRF cu o rezolutie de 9 km:

WRF with 3 km resolution: (Czech rep.)	WRF with 3 km resolution: (Gibraltar)

WRF cu o rezolutie de 9 km: (Canary)	WRF cu o rezolutie de 9 km: (Egypt)

WRF cu o rezolutie de 9 km: (South Africa)	WRF cu o rezolutie de 12 km: (Argentina)

Model HRW

Modelul HRW (High Resolution Window) are la baza modelul de prognoza WRF, este operat de NOAA/NCEP la fel ca modelele GFS si NAM descrise mai sus. Folosim date de prognoza ce acopera insulele din Hawaii cu rezolutie orizontala de 5 km si Statele unite ale Americii cu o rezolutie de 4 km. Durata prognozelor este de 48 de ore. Prognozele pentru Hawaii si estul SUA sunt actualizate de doua ori pe zi (00 UTC si 12 UTC) in timp ce prognozele pentru vestul SUA sunt actualizate o data pe zi (06 UTC). Another smaller HRW 5 km domain covers part of Caribbean around Dominican republic and Puerto Rico and updates twice per day (cycles 06 UTC and 18 UTC).

Dupa cum se poate vedea in hartile de mai jos, domeniile de est si vest ale SUA se suprapun destul de mult, astfel daca vizualizati o locatie in centrul SUA ce este acoperita de ambele domenii HRW veti vedea mereu cele mai noi modele de prognoza disponibile - fie de la HRWe sau HRWw in functie de care este cel mai recent. Astfel putem spune ca pentru locatiile din centrul SUA modelul HRW se actualizeaza de 3 ori pe zi (00, 06 si 12 UTC)

Notice: Some or all HRW forecasts will not update if NOAA needs to run Hurricane models instead.

Prognozele HRW sunt gratuite pentru toti utilizatorii!

HRWw cu o rezolutie de 4 km:	HRWe cu o rezolutie de 4 km:

HRW cu o rezolutie de 5 km:	HRW cu o rezolutie de 5 km:

Modelul de date actual:

GFS 50 km (world):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
NWW3 (waves):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
WRF 27 km (Europe):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
WRF 9 km (Europe):	21.05.2013 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (Canary):	21.05.2013 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (Egypt):	21.05.2013 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (South Africa):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
WRF 12 km (Argentina):	21.05.2013 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (CZ):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
WRF 3 km (Gibraltar):	21.05.2013 12 UTC
NAM 12 km (N.America):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
NAM 3 km (Hawaii):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
HRW 5 km (Hawaii):	21.05.2013 12 UTC
HRW 5 km (Caribbean):	21.05.2013 18 UTC
HRWe 4 km (US east):	21.05.2013 12 UTC
HRWw 4 km (US west):	21.05.2013 06 UTC

Programul de actualizare al modelelor:

ciclu de model:	00 UTC	06 UTC	12 UTC	18 UTC
GFS 50 km (world)	04:55 UTC	10:55 UTC	16:55 UTC	22:55 UTC
NWW3 (waves)	04:55 UTC	10:55 UTC	16:55 UTC	22:55 UTC
WRF 27 km (Europe)	05:00 UTC	11:00 UTC	17:00 UTC	23:00 UTC
WRF 9 km (Europe)	07:40 UTC	13:40 UTC	19:40 UTC	01:40 UTC
WRF 9 km (Canary)	08:10 UTC	14:10 UTC	20:10 UTC	02:10 UTC
WRF 9 km (Egypt)	07:35 UTC	13:35 UTC	19:35 UTC	01:35 UTC
WRF 9 km (South Africa)	06:15 UTC	12:15 UTC	18:15 UTC	00:15 UTC
WRF 12 km (Argentina)	08:40 UTC	14:40 UTC	20:40 UTC	02:40 UTC
WRF 3 km (CZ)	06:40 UTC	12:40 UTC	18:40 UTC	00:40 UTC
WRF 3 km (Gibraltar)	08:20 UTC	14:20 UTC	20:20 UTC	02:20 UTC
NAM 12 km (N.America)	03:00 UTC	09:00 UTC	15:00 UTC	21:00 UTC
NAM 3 km (Hawaii)	02:15 UTC	08:15 UTC	14:15 UTC	20:15 UTC
HRW 5 km (Hawaii)	04:50 UTC		16:50 UTC
HRW 5 km (Caribbean)		10:50 UTC		22:50 UTC
HRWe 4 km (US east)	05:35 UTC		17:35 UTC
HRWw 4 km (US west)		11:30 UTC

(Orele aproximative pentru actualizarea modelelor in UTC, ora este acum 22.5.2013 01:11 UTC)

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